When most political analysts anticipated that the BJP would field Mulayam Singh Yadav’s daughter from Mainpuri, Shah had a different strategy. BJP has fielded Raghuaraj Singh Shakya from Mainpuri. Shakya is very close to Mulayam’s brother Shivalpal Yadav who is having issues with Akhilesh Yadav.
Out of the five assembly constituencies in Mainpuri Lok Sabha segment, two went with BJP and three with SP in the last state elections.
With Shivpal having a grouse against Akhilesh for not consulting him in the choice of Mainpuri candidate, it is expected that he will support BJP’s Shakya. If it happens, BJP would get support from Jaswant Nagar voters who had voted Shivpal in the last assembly election.
In that case, BJP will have support from three assembly constituencies out of five under Mainpuri Lok Sabha seat. And if one takes into account, the voting percentage increase of the BJP in Mainpuri, despite Modi not canvassing to respect Mulayam, things appear rosy for BJP.
In 2014, Mulayam had won from Mainpuri Lok Sabha with a margin of 2 lakh plus votes. In 2019, he won by 94,000 votes, a considerable drop despite Modi not canvassing there.
Caste calculations are also against SP because it wins with Yadav, Shakya and Muslim support, but with Shakya in the fray with Shivpal’s support, BJP will be causing a deep cut into Shakya and Yadav votes. Anyway SC (left) are solidly with the BJP in Uttar Pradesh. This has given Akhilesh sleepless nights.
If Akhilesh fails to hold on to his father’s bastion, he and SP will lose much, and can pave the way for BJP to getting lions share of seats in UP Lok Sabha elections in 2024.